Embraer Unveils Insights on the Future of Global Commercial Aviation

According to a recent report by Embraer, titled Market Outlook 2025, the company has shared its projections for commercial aircraft deliveries in the sub-150-seat segment over the next two decades.This release comes just ahead of the Paris Air Show.

The market Outlook 2025 anticipates around 10,500 orders for new jets and turboprops until 2044. It also delves into various global factors and trends across seven regions that influence aircraft demand. Notably, this year marks the first time China’s statistics are highlighted separately due to its increasing role in commercial aviation.

The report further explores cargo aircraft demand and includes predictions regarding passenger-to-freighter conversions.

Interestingly,Embraer’s forecast for new sub-150-seat aircraft remains largely stable compared to previous estimates. Arjan Meijer, President and CEO of Embraer Commercial Aviation, credits this stability to enduring social dynamics and supply chain shifts identified during the pandemic.

“Five years post-pandemic, many structural changes have shown remarkable durability,” Meijer noted. “In our initial post-pandemic outlook, we pointed out a shift from globalization towards a more divided geopolitical landscape.As nations seek greater strategic independence now more than ever, regional access will be increasingly vital.We believe that having mixed fleets with both small and large narrowbody planes is crucial for enduring growth as they offer flexibility to align capacity with demand while enhancing networks and supporting local advancement initiatives.”

A Rapid Look at Key Insights from the 20-Year Commercial Market Outlook

The forecast predicts global passenger traffic growth at an annual rate of 3.9% through 2044, with China expected to lead among all regions.

Regional annual RPK Growth Rates – Ranked