Port of Los Angeles Expects Continued Weakness After January Decline
The Port of Los Angeles foresees continued weakness in container volumes for the first quarter of 2026 after a 12 percent decline in January. However, while highlighting that it does not expect increased certainty for U.S. trade policies, it believes the rate of decline is stabilizing and is not expected to “drop off a cliff” as the U.S. moves forward in 2026.
As the largest container port in the Americas, the Port of Los Angeles is viewed as a key measure of U.S. trade, especially with China and Asia. Despite the uncertainties and changes in trade policies in 2025, the port recorded its third busiest year, handling more than 10 million containers. While it represented a marginal decline versus 2024, it marked the 26th year the Port of Los Angeles was the busiest port in the Western Hemisphere.
While saying “January held no surprises,” Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka told reporters at a media briefing on February 17 that he expects a decline of “less than 10 percent” for volume in the first quarter. After that, he said, “I don’t see the economy or cargo volume dropping off a cliff…. I don’t see a dire situation.”
Seroka notes that in addition to continuing uncertainties in U.S. trade policy, they are facing a headwind after “importers scrambled to get cargo in ahead of the tariffs” in 2025. He believes that impacted January volumes and will continue to have an impact into 2026.
All measures of volume were off during January, with imports down 13 percent while exports were down 8 percent to the lowest levels in nearly three years. Critically, imports were 3 percent below the port’s five-year running average.
Similarly, the indicators are also weak. Seroka pointed to the consumer confidence index, which is at its lowest level in 11 years. He reported in January that empties leaving the port, an indicator of shippers preparing for export cargo, were down 12 percent. He said this reflects softer demand ahead. During the conversation, it was noted that the U.S. is not exporting much to China currently.
Halfway through February, the forecast for the month was that arrivals looked “relatively flat” compared to last year. However, the Lunar New Year holiday began this week and will have an impact going forward. Seroka said the primary impact would be felt in March at the port of Los Angeles.
Seroka also believes that importers are in a “cautious restocking phase.” He notes that inventories are higher at the beginning of the year, meaning they expect it will impact volumes going forward. He also notes that the frontloading that took place in 2025 means they will continue to face challenging year-over-year comparisons as they go forward this year.
that matters most
Get the latest maritime news delivered to your inbox daily.
Despite a cautious outlook, Seroka noted that order levels appear to be fairly stable, contributing to the outlook of a leveling off for volumes as they move into 2026. He also notes the American consumer has “shown remarkable resilience.”
The Port of Los Angeles’ forecasts follow similar broader outlooks from the National Retail Federation, which expects retail imports to remain at lower levels moving into 2026. The spending frenzy during and after the pandemic has cooled, with analysts noting that consumers remain concerned.
Content Original Link:
" target="_blank">
