Step Change in U.S. Reinforcements Headed Towards Iran
Up until now, reinforcements to the US force posture in the Middle East can safely have been described as strengthening defensive posture, particularly air defense posture, while ensuring that there is adequate capacity in place to respond to an Iranian first-strike or provocation. Indeed, some pundits have described the reinforcements last week as merely bring force levels back up to those prevailing in recent decades, before some assets were withdrawn in a pivot away from the Middle East towards the Indo-Pacific. Some of the reinforcements were also clearly a contingency move to cover the withdrawal and redistribution of US forces in Syria.
However in recent days, this characterization has changed, primarily with the deployment of an additional carrier strike group led by the USS Gerald R Ford (CVN-78). This in itself was an extraordinary move dictated by operational necessity, given that by normal force rotation plans the Ford and its carrier strike group should by now have been looking forward to a return to its home port in Norfolk, Virginia after participation in Operation Southern Comfort. There have also been additional naval reinforcements chopped to CENTCOM, including perhaps the Arleigh Burke Class guided-missile destroyer USS Pinckney (DDG-91), which was withdrawn from attendance at India’s International Fleet Review.
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The presence of a second carrier in the CENTCOM area, with all its embarked air assets, is sufficient of itself to furnish the United States with an offensive capability. However, there have also been substantial moves forward of air assets, including resources which would be needed in a coordinated, large-scale offensive action. Forces committed to CENTCOM are already capable of immediate operational initiatives. But in an ideal world, reinforcements arriving would benefit from two weeks operational acclimatization. UK force reinforcements, albeit small-scale, have been moved up early into theater for this purpose.
The deployment of additional US forces to the Middle East appears to have followed on closely from the second round of American-Iranian negotiations held in Geneva this week. The Iranians may have felt they were successfully limiting discussions to a trade-off between nuclear restraints and a relaxation of sanctions. The American perspective on red lines and negotiating parameters was clearly different, with not only the nuclear issue on the table, but also limitations on Iran’s offensive ballistic missile capability, an end to Iran’s regional expansionism, and to executions and repression at home.
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