Iran’s shadow fleet disrupted by Middle East war
Several days later Celeste I transited the Strait of Hormuz. It has since been waiting at anchor in the Gulf of Oman. Its draught data, which is manually inputted by those on board the ship, suggests the vessel left the Middle East Gulf empty.
Long range one tanker Ocean Laura(IMO: 9301940), a relatively new shadow fleet entrant, appears to be looking for new employment in the Russian market, having exclusively been lifting Iranian oil since it changed ownership in October of last year.
The non-sanctioned shadow fleet tanker lifted high sulphur fuel oil from Iran prior to the beginning of the war and discharged this cargo in Fujairah just as the situation started to escalate.
Instead of returning to the Middle East Gulf, Ocean Laura set sail for the Red Sea and is indicating Suez as its destination.
There are ship-to-ship transfer hubs in both the areas north and south of the Suez Canal where sanctioned barrels are transhipped, particularly on the Russian side. It is also possible that Suez is not the vessel’s true next port of call, and Ocean Laura may sail directly to Russia.
Claire Jungman, director of maritime risk and intelligence at Vortexa, said these shifts in behaviour in many ways is Iran doing what Iran does best: adapting its shipping network in real time.
“The shadow fleet is designed to operate under disruption, so vessels may divert, pause or reposition, but the broader export system tends to keep functioning,” said Jungman.
Satellite imagery and vessel tracking data shows that Iran is continuing to load and export oil and liquefied petroleum gas throughout the crisis.
Over half of all tanker and gas carriers over 10,000 dwt that transited the Strait of Hormuz between March 1-10 were part of the shadow fleet, according to Lloyd’s List analysis, which included suspected dark transits.
The 298,972 dwt crude oil tanker Lan Jing(IMO: 9288095), for example, sailed through the Strait of Hormuz laden with cargo it loaded deceptively in the Middle East Gulf on March 11.
Lloyd’s List has identified at least 16 crude oil and product tankers (equivalent to 3.4m dwt), all sanctioned, that are likely loading in Iran or are likely positioned to load.
Of these eight are VLCCs, four are suezmaxes and one is an aframax. There is also a medium range two tanker, a medium range one tanker, and a handy tanker.
It is difficult to get a real-time snapshot of some of the Iranian shadow fleet given so many vessels disable their Automatic Identification System transceivers or spoof their location data to hide their activity, sometimes for weeks or months.
The Iranian-flagged suezmax Sinopa(IMO: 9172038), for example, turned off its AIS on March 1 while sailing ballast through the Strait of Hormuz.
Another suezmax, the falsely flagged Olympics(IMO: 9212759) arrived empty to the Middle East Gulf in mid-February. Olympics has switched between disabling its AIS and manipulating its location data throughout the war and is currently offline.
With additional reporting from Tomer Raanan
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