FEATURE | China boosted crude stockpiles at start of 2026, but is not using them

Hormuz disruption

However, the crude market dynamic has shifted dramatically since the US and Israel launched an aerial bombing and missile campaign against Iran on February 28, prompting Tehran to respond with drone and missile attacks on targets across the gulf countries that host US military bases.

It is the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz that has had the biggest impact on crude and refined product markets, with the narrow waterway carrying as much as 20 million bpd of oil and fuels, or about one-fifth of global consumption.

Brent futures surged to the highest since June 2022, reaching a high of $119.50 a barrel on March 9, before easing to end at $100.21 on Monday.

While Brent has gained 38 per cent since the start of the conflict, prices for Middle East crudes and refined products have risen by much higher percentages, and in the case of jet fuel in Asia they have doubled as the market starts to worry about a supply crunch.