Traffic Through Strait of Hormuz Remains at a Trickle Due to Uncertainties
While there is little agreement on just how many vessels have been able to make the transit through the Strait of Hormuz since the start of the ceasefire, it remains clear that traffic continued at a trickle as the agreement went into its second day. The White House asserts the Strait is open while Iran continues to move to consolidate its control over the vital shipping lane.
The hastily arranged ceasefire left open questions of control, Iran’s assertions of fees, and other issues, and in the vacuum, Iran has moved to assert its control. Yesterday, it announced a new Traffic Separation Scheme, warning that ships had to navigate on its prescribed route for safety. So far, it appears only a handful of ships have been willing to test the new process, most coming from countries such as India, which had a previous agreement with Iran for safe passage.
Reuters initially reported there had been just four transits on Wednesday, then reported that six ships had made the transit in the first 24 hours, but later still changed it to say seven ships in 24 hours. Compiling data from various sources, it concluded that six of the ships were bulkers and only one small product tanker.
None of the tankers trapped in the Persian Gulf has yet attempted the transit, according to Bloomberg. It pointed to three Chinese tankers that appeared to be queuing for passage, but they remained as of the end of the day in the Persian Gulf. They are also continuing to transmit signals on the AIS, highlighting Chinese ownership and crew. A Saudi tanker also appeared to move into a holding position after there were reports that a Saudi and Iranian official had spoken for the first time in weeks.
All signs point to no meaningful rebound in traffic, with Reuters concluding it remains at about 10 percent of pre-war volumes. Kpler points to 180 tankers loaded with approximately 172 million barrels of crude oil and refined products stranded in the Gulf. Some estimates put it at more than 400 laden crude oil tankers as well as LNG and LPG carriers.
Maritime AI intelligence firm Windward wrote in its analysis that the first 48 hours of the ceasefire would be critical to shipowners’ willingness to enter the Strait. None of the major carriers has moved their vessels, with Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and NYK saying yesterday they were watching and waiting for security assurances. Today, Mitsui O.S.K. Lines CEO also said they were looking to ensure the safety risks were sufficiently low while also looking for guidance from the Japanese government.
“There will be no return to the pre-war status quo," an unnamed Iranian official told the Russian news agency TASS. “Under the current ceasefire, fewer than 15 ships per day are permitted to transit the Strait of Hormuz. This movement is strictly contingent upon Iran's approval and the enforcement of a specific protocol,” the source told TASS.
The International Maritime Organization has begun to speak out against the rumored details that would let Iran not only control the Strait but also charge large fees. It points out international agreements for the right of transit through international straits. “There is no international agreement where tolls can be introduced for transiting international straits. Any such toll will set a dangerous precedent,” an IMO spokesperson told Reuters.
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Even if the ceasefire holds and ships begin to move through the Strait, analysts point out that it will be a prolonged period before any semblance of normalcy. Hapag-Lloyd told Reuters it would take weeks, if not months, to restore shipping schedules. Analyst Peter Sand of Xeneta said the conflict displaced 250,000 TEU of weekly shipping capacity while warning there is unlikely to be a rapid return to normalcy for container shipping. Sand called the two-week ceasefire agreement “a very short window of opportunity,” while noting there is no guarantee it will hold.
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