Chagos Climb-Down Calls for a New Plan
In the arcane fashion under which the unwritten British constitution works, a clear signal has been given that the Treaty under which the United Kingdom would transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius, has been abandoned. The deal would have seen the continued use of Diego Garcia by the United States in return for annual rent. In the short term, current arrangements remain in place, with the UK retaining sovereignty and the United States Naval Support Facility continuing operations as before – without the need for any rental payments.
A new term in the House of Commons is about to begin, and the legislation enabling the Treaty has not been included in the carry-over package of bills which need to be completed in the next session. Opposition parties had managed to encumber the bill with amendments which undermined the treaty, thereby delaying the passage of the bill – and proving that the House of Lords as a second chamber still has political value.
It is too early to know if the government will somehow seek to revive the bill, possibly by renegotiating parts of it and reintroducing amended legislation at a later date. But there will be intense opposition to this in the United Kingdom, with members of parliament from the Prime Minister’s own party urging him not to. Most British people had never heard of the Chagos before the hand-over negotiations. But there is now huge support for retaining the archipelago as Crown territory. Mauritius, which had previously negotiated a highly advantageous deal, will be reluctant to see talks reopened on a deal which they think is now concluded: this might threaten what it has so far skillfully managed to secure.
The failure of the bill also presents huge domestic problems for Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, who has close personal and political ties to its principal architect, the Attorney General Lord Hermer. Lord Hermer justified the Treaty on the basis of his personal commitment to international law. But under UNCLOS Article 298, the United Kingdom can invoke a military exemption, and therefore no imminent legal threat exists under international law. On the contrary, not only have the current arrangements been found to be compliant with international law, but the proposed Treaty itself was found to be in breach, as it required American consent to resile from the US-UK 1965 Treaty which guaranteed American use of the base, consent which has not been forthcoming.
As he has already stymied progress in an unprecedented manner in other areas of government, by vetoing proposals on the basis of contraventions of international law, there will now be pressure on the Attorney General to resign. Whether or not the Attorney General he does so, the position of the Prime Minister himself is compromised.
In the short term, the resettlement of the outer islands of the Chagos Archipelago looks set to continue. The Chagos Islanders’ leader, Misley Mandarin, remains encamped on Île du Coin, the main island in the atoll of Peros Banhos, 120 nm north of Diego Garcia, attempts to have him and fellow Chagossians evicted having failed in the British Indian Ocean Territory Supreme Court. At variance with this, the British Indian Ocean Territory police force is now trying to interrupt the resupply of the Chagossians now resident on Île du Coin.
In the meantime, a wealthy backer is proceeding with plans to help re-establish a sustainable community on the island, which though cleared in 1971 is the birthplace of 300 still-living Chagossians. The Peros Banhos atoll previously was run as a coconut plantation, with the Île du Coin as its main settlement and port.
It would also be no surprise if the British government also re-committed itself to preserving the Chagos Islands Maritime Protection Area, a Green cause support for which featured strongly in the opposition to the handover plan. It was expected that the Chinese fishing fleet would have paid the Mauritians generously for licenses to exploit the protected area’s until-now well-preserved fish stocks.
The Mauritian government pursued its case by managing to garner Third World and BRICS support in the UN General Assembly for its claim, based primarily on anti-colonial sentiment. But Mauritius has no political, historical or ethnic connection to the Chagos Archipelago. If anything, the Maldives to the north have a better claim, based on geographical proximity.
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But many consider the true Mauritian motivation behind its claim was money, and indeed the present Mauritian government was planning to use the proceeds to pay off the national debt and reduce income tax. Faced with prospect of losing everything, Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam may instead seek a compensatory financial settlement, which will not please his BRICS backers but which may enable him to buy back political support domestically.
In the meantime, the Diego Garcia Naval Support Facility is proving its worth, both as an airbase but also as a naval logistics and an assembly area. Its value may increase further as it becomes useful as a base for enforcing the blockade on Iranian shipping.
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