OPINION | Something else for Australia to consider: Russian nuclear submarines in the Pacific

Strategists in Canberra should factor in the plausible risk of Russian participation in a Western Pacific conflict, especially action by Russian submarines.

Russia has modernised its Pacific submarines and has a clear reason for using them: increasingly dependent on China economically and strategically, it could not afford to see China fail in an attempt at subjugating Taiwan. If China invades Taiwan, Russia may well act, particularly by complicating Japan’s attempts to come to Taiwan’s aid.

As Australia’s relationship with Japan goes from strength to strength, Western sanctions have isolated Russia from once critical European trade, forcing it to rely on trade with Indo-Pacific states, particularly China.

China is not only Russia’s largest export market but is also the main external state sponsor of Russia’s war in Ukraine, providing economic, diplomatic and technological support. A Western blockade of China in a conflict would both weaken Russia’s main patron and functionally cut Russia off from trade with the entire Eurasian continent when coupled with existing sanctions.