Glencore H2 Earnings Call Highlights
Glencore LON: GLEN reported what CEO Gary Nagle described as a “very good year” for 2025, highlighted by a strong second-half recovery and strength in its metals business. The company posted $13.5 billion of adjusted EBITDA for the year, with roughly $10 billion coming from the industrial division and $2.9 billion from marketing.
Nagle said the first half of 2025 was weak as expected, but the year ended “very strongly.” CFO Steven Kalmin underscored the second-half momentum, noting the business saw a “50% increase” when comparing H1 to H2 across the group, with industrial up 65% in the second half and marketing also improving.
Metals strength offsets weaker energy and coal
Management attributed the industrial performance primarily to metals, with Nagle calling out copper and zinc as particularly strong contributors. Kalmin said the year-over-year price variance within industrial reflected a +1.9 contribution from metals, partially offset by a -2.4 hit in coal.
Kalmin said copper prices averaged 9% higher year over year, and copper contributed $1 billion of the metals price variance. Zinc also improved, with Kalmin pointing to strong zinc pricing and meaningful support from gold by-products, especially at Kazinc. He said the zinc business improved by about $1 billion year over year, including $800 million from zinc itself, of which $500 million came from Kazinc.
On the other hand, Nagle said energy and steelmaking coal were weaker amid lower prices, especially in the first half, though he said the company remained “very cash generative” due to product quality. He noted coal markets improved toward the end of 2025 and into 2026, citing:
- Energy coal strength linked to Indonesian export cuts, with Newcastle pricing rising above $120 per tonne.
- Steelmaking coal spot prices reaching about $250, with forward prices in the $220s, supported by Queensland weather impacts and stronger Indian demand.
Nagle also said Glencore may consider its own energy coal production cuts despite higher prices, describing supply discipline as “always on the table,” particularly in Australia.
Marketing delivers $2.9 billion, led by metals trading
Glencore’s marketing division delivered $2.9 billion of adjusted EBIT, which Nagle said sits around the middle of the company’s updated earnings range. He emphasized that the updated range excludes Viterra trading profits from prior periods, making the 2025 outcome “materially higher” on a like-for-like basis compared to historical performance.
Management said marketing strength was driven by metals—particularly copper—where “trade dislocations,” regional arbitrage, and a tight concentrate market created opportunities. Trading conditions in energy and steelmaking coal were weaker for much of the year, though Nagle said opportunities began returning around September and October, with a better start to 2026.
Portfolio moves: copper growth pipeline, DRC developments, and asset simplification
Nagle revisited Glencore’s longer-term copper growth ambitions discussed at its December presentation, reiterating the company’s levers to grow from a roughly 1 million tonne base toward ~1.6 million tonnes by 2035, with potential to exceed 2 million tonnes depending on project sequencing.
Key updates included:
- Antamina (Peru): Glencore completed the acquisition of Quechua, adjacent to Coroccohuayco/Antamina, which management said increases optionality and helps resolve access constraints.
- DRC: Glencore signed a non-binding MoU with U.S. government-backed Orion CMC related to its KCC and Mutanda operations. Kalmin said it was too early to outline exact cash flow impacts given the structure is still being developed and due diligence is beginning. Nagle also said the long-discussed KCC land package has been secured through a long-term lease (rather than a land purchase), which he said has the same financial impact and access rights as the prior structure and supports expansion back toward ~300,000 tonnes of copper per year with mine life “well into the 2040s.”
- Argentina: The company is progressing RIGI approvals for Mara and El Pachón. Nagle said Mara’s approval is expected before Pachón’s, with Mara potentially received in the first half of the year. Glencore has begun work on Minera Alumbrera as an enabler for Mara and expects first production in 2028.
- Minnesota JV: At NewRange, management said additional drilling increased the resource base by approximately 1 billion tonnes and that the project is moving through permitting.
Outside of copper, Nagle highlighted portfolio “monetization” and simplification steps, including a partial sale of Glencore’s stake in Century Aluminum while retaining what he called a meaningful holding. He also cited the sale of the César smelter in the Philippines and the sale of an underutilized Colombian port near Santa Marta that had been built to serve the former Prodeco mines.
Cash flow, taxes, capital returns, and 2026 priorities
Kalmin said net debt finished the year essentially unchanged, noting the company generated $8.7 billion of funds from operations. He highlighted a $1 billion HMRC-related payment tied to legacy matters that is recorded as an income tax receivable, with management expecting a “significant portion” to be recovered through an ongoing U.K.-Swiss resolution process.
On capital returns, management said Glencore declared a $2 billion dividend. Nagle said the company has returned more than $27 billion to shareholders since 2021. In the Q&A, management said it opted for more cash returns after receiving shareholder feedback, while keeping buybacks “firmly on the table.”
Kalmin reiterated CapEx guidance of $26–$28 billion over the 2026–2028 period, consistent with the company’s prior CMD, and said Glencore continues to see strong momentum moving into 2026. Nagle closed by outlining 2026 priorities including safety, operational excellence, organic growth de-risking, balance sheet strength, and shareholder value creation. He noted the company recorded two fatalities in 2025, which he called “two too many,” while also stating this represented the lowest fatality count the business has recorded.
In Q&A, management said it has received “zero incoming” from shareholders about revisiting a coal spin-off after a previous consultation, and described coal as a cash-generative “bedrock” for returns. Nagle also confirmed discussions with Rio Tinto did not progress due to valuation differences, while emphasizing Glencore’s standalone growth pipeline and improving operating delivery.
About Glencore LON: GLEN
Glencore is one of the world's largest global diversified natural resource companies and a major producer and marketer of more than 60 commodities that advance everyday life. Through a network of assets, customers and suppliers that spans the globe, we produce, process, recycle, source, market and distribute the commodities that support decarbonisation while meeting the energy needs of today. With over 150,000 employees and contractors and a strong footprint in over 35 countries in both established and emerging regions for natural resources, our marketing and industrial activities are supported by a global network of more than 50 offices.
Recommended Stories
- Five stocks we like better than Glencore
- Energy Security Is Now National Security - Positioning Is Happening Now
- The "Bomb" in America’s Basement
- The gold chart Wall Street is terrified of…
- Unlocked: Elon Musk’s Next Big IPO
- How to collect $1,170 a month from silver
This instant news alert was generated by narrative science technology and financial data from MarketBeat in order to provide readers with the fastest reporting and unbiased coverage. Please send any questions or comments about this story to
Should You Invest $1,000 in Glencore Right Now?
Before you consider Glencore, you'll want to hear this.
MarketBeat keeps track of Wall Street's top-rated and best performing research analysts and the stocks they recommend to their clients on a daily basis. MarketBeat has identified the five stocks that top analysts are quietly whispering to their clients to buy now before the broader market catches on... and Glencore wasn't on the list.
While Glencore currently has a Moderate Buy rating among analysts, top-rated analysts believe these five stocks are better buys.
Discover the 10 Best High-Yield Dividend Stocks for 2026 and secure reliable income in uncertain markets. Download the report now to identify top dividend payers and avoid common yield traps.
Get This Free ReportContent Original Link:
" target="_blank">
