Arthur Hayes Says Trump's Wartime Economy Could Send Bitcoin To $250K—Here's His Roadmap

The Stablecoin Connection

Hayes identifies a crucial feedback loop that could sustain government spending: stablecoins. As crypto markets rise, more capital flows into USD-pegged stablecoins like Tether, which invest their reserves in Treasury bills.

His math is striking: For every $1 increase in total crypto market cap, approximately $0.09 flows into stablecoins. If crypto reaches his $100 trillion target – a 25x increase, – that would create roughly $9 trillion in T-bill purchasing power—conveniently financing the expanding federal deficit.

Trading Targets and Risks

Hayes isn’t just theorizing—he’s betting big. His fund Maelstrom is “fully invested” in crypto, with particular emphasis on Ethereum-based assets. His year-end targets are aggressive:

• Bitcoin: $250,000

• Ethereum: $10,000

“The Western institutional investor class loves Ether,” he argues, suggesting it’s positioned for a major breakout after underperforming relative to Solana, which rose from $7 to $280 post-FTX collapse.

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The Inflation Trade-Off

Hayes acknowledges the elephant in the room: this credit expansion creates inflation. But he argues governments historically manage this by directing excess money into asset bubbles rather than essential goods. China’s property market served this function for decades—now crypto could play that role in America.

“If the price of wheat went up as fast as Bitcoin did over the past 15 years, most governments would have fallen to popular revolution,” Hayes observes.

Bottom Line for Investors

Hayes’s thesis suggests that geopolitical tensions and defense spending aren’t headwinds for crypto—they’re accelerants. His “kick drum” of credit creation continues regardless of tariff wars or regional conflicts.

For retail investors, this presents both opportunity and risk. Hayes’s track record includes correctly predicting crypto trends, but his $250,000 Bitcoin target represents extreme optimism that assumes flawless policy execution and continued institutional adoption.