Bitcoin Price Builds Its First Breakout Setup of April, but One Metric Dropped Over 50%
Bitcoin price today trades near $71,800, up roughly 2.9% over the past month. A bullish pattern on Bitcoin's (BTC) daily chart now points to an 11% breakout target.
Yet the data behind the rally tells a cautious story. Bitcoin open interest has dropped, spot outflows have halved, and long-side conviction is well below earlier levels. The structure is ready. The fuel is not.
Bitcoin Price Builds Breakout Structure as RSI Hints at a Pullback
On the daily chart, the Bitcoin price has formed a clear rounded bottom pattern with a slightly upward-slanting neckline. The cup completed its formation after weeks of gradual recovery from late March lows. Since the April 9 local peak, a consolidation has started that could align with the handle if the pattern continues.
However, momentum tells similar but a more aggressive story. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a measure of buying and selling pressure, currently sits at 58.44. Between March 4 and April 9, price printed a lower high while RSI printed a higher high. That is a hidden bearish divergence, a pattern that often hints at downtrend continuation.
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Despite being up 2.9% month on month, BTC remains down 17% year to date. The divergence suggests the recent pullback (consolidation into handle) may have further to run before any Bitcoin breakout attempt. While the structure looks constructive, whether it stalls or accelerates depends on the derivatives and spot side.
Derivatives Cool Off and Spot Flows Weaken by More Than Half
The comparison between April 8 and today reveals how quickly conviction has faded. On April 8, when BTC traded near $72,300, total open interest stood at $27.39 billion. The BTC funding rate, which measures the cost of holding long positions, sat at 0.007%. Aggressive long bias or sentiment was driving the rally.
Today, at a similar price near $71,900, open interest has slipped to $27.04 billion. Funding has dropped to just 0.002%. Fewer traders are betting on further upside at these levels. That absence of leverage is a double-edged sword. It means less fuel to push higher, but it also means fewer positions to liquidate if prices drop as the sentiment is still long-biased.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin exchange flows confirm the spot side is weakening too, alongside bullish sentiment. Glassnode data shows the exchange net position change, a metric that tracks exchange flows, peaked at negative 80,352 BTC on March 26. The metric tracks tokens moving in and out of exchanges. That figure has since dropped to negative 36,221 on April 9, a decline of over 50%.
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