Is It Worth Investing in Bitcoin Right Now?
Strategy's Cost Basis Is Right Here
Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder in the world, owns 843,738 BTC at an average purchase price of $75,700. That's essentially where Bitcoin trades right now, meaning Strategy's entire treasury is at break-even.
Every time Bitcoin dropped toward this range in 2026, Strategy bought more, including 34,164 BTC for $2.54 billion in April and another 24,869 BTC for $2.01 billion in May. That consistent buying at this level creates a floor that no previous Bitcoin cycle had.
The Post-Halving Clock Is Still Ticking
The April 2024 halving puts the historical price peak window between April and October 2026. Every Bitcoin halving has produced a new all-time high within 18 months of the event, and Bitcoin hit $126,198 in October 2025 exactly 18 months after the halving.
Standard Chartered still targets $100,000 for BTC by year-end. So, if the cycle has a second leg, the window for it is open right now.
$60 Billion in ETF Infrastructure Isn't Going Anywhere
Last week's $1.47 billion in outflows is less than 2.5% of the $60 billion in total cumulative Bitcoin ETF inflows since January 2024. BlackRock's IBIT, Fidelity's FBTC, and Grayscale's products are all intact.
The outflows are institutional traders rotating toward bonds, not a withdrawal of conviction in Bitcoin as an asset class. When Treasury yields stabilize, that capital could return to Bitcoin ETFs faster than it left.
What Are the Biggest Risks of Buying Bitcoin Right Now?
The structural case holds, but so do the risks pushing against Bitcoin's price.
The Fed May Raise Rates
Bitcoin's recovery from February to May ran on one assumption: the Fed would cut rates in 2026, but that assumption broke in the third week of May. Bond traders are now pricing a 43%-47% chance of a rate hike by December.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller, while still favouring a hold, said he "can no longer rule out rate hikes" if inflation does not abate. The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.5%. Bitcoin pays no yield. So, when government bonds offer 4.5% with no volatility, institutional investors do the math, and Bitcoin loses that comparison until yields come back down.
ETF Outflows Are Creating Direct Selling
When ETFs record outflows, fund managers must sell Bitcoin to return cash to investors. Since May 7, that selling has totalled $2.2 billion over three weeks. The outflow streak is the single biggest mechanical reason Bitcoin has given back its May gains.
The outflows will only end when inflation data softens and rate hike bets fade. Until that happens, institutional selling pressure remains.
There Is No Confirmed Floor Yet
Bitcoin remains range-bound between $74,000 and $76,000, finding support each time it drops to that level. That is the encouraging part. The concerning part is that it has failed to hold above $82,000 on any of its bounces. Without a sustained close above the 200-day moving average at $82,700, the recovery keeps stalling at the same ceiling.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt projects a potential "investable low" around September to October 2026 that could revisit February's $60,000. Buying now means accepting the possibility that a better entry exists later this year.
Is Bitcoin Worth Investing in Right Now?
We don't think now is the right time to buy, but we are very close to changing that view. Right now, investors are pulling money out of Bitcoin because they are worried the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates.
When rates go up, government bonds become more attractive—they pay a guaranteed return, and Bitcoin doesn't pay anything. So money moves out of Bitcoin and into bonds, and Bitcoin's price drops. That is exactly what has been happening since May 7, with $2.2 billion leaving Bitcoin ETFs in three weeks.
However, that could change on May 28, when the U.S. releases its latest PCE inflation report. If inflation has slowed down, the fear of a rate hike fades, and the money that left Bitcoin starts coming back. At that point, $75,700 looks like the entry point of the cycle. If inflation is still high, the selling continues. The inflation report is all that separates the two outcomes, and we will know the answer tomorrow.
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