"The Iran war and the resulting disruptions to ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz have increased uncertainty for both the global economy and the dry bulk market. Around 4% of dry
"The Iran war and the resulting disruptions to ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz have increased uncertainty for both the global economy and the dry bulk market. Around 4% of dry bulk cargoes and tonne mile demand typically sail through the strait and at present, and around 210 ships, equivalent to roughly 1% of the dry bulk fleet, are currently trapped in the Persian Gulf,” says Filipe Gouveia, Shipping Analysis Manager at BIMCO.
Given the high uncertainty over when transits may resume, we present two forecast scenarios. The “SoH closed” scenario assumes the strait remains effectively closed indefinitely, while the “SoH open” scenario assumes an imminent reopening. The longer the closure persists, the closer the market outlook will align with the SoH closed scenario.
“If the strait remains effectively closed, the supply/demand balance is expected to weaken slightly in 2026, albeit from a high baseline, and to weaken significantly in 2027. If transits resume soon, we forecast market conditions to remain strong during this and next year, as the supply/demand balance strengthens in 2026 and slightly weakens in 2027,” says Gouveia.
Supply growth is expected to be broadly similar under both scenarios. Under the SoH closed scenario, fleet supply
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